The national Market Clock moved to 4. Write your metro's hour first.

On October 19, Realtor.com published its third-quarter Market Clock. The national reading is 4 o’clock, which the table labels Late Balanced (loosening). The company’s release says the clock moved there from 3 o’clock last quarter. The research page says historical readings were restated, and some past values may differ slightly from the first- and second-quarter reports.

The October reading reports conditions through September. It combines inventory, recorded transactions, and sales projections from contract activity. Jackson, Mississippi, is off the table because of a county-level gap in transaction records. The tables cover 99 metros plus the national reading.

In the October 19 release, Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com, said: “More buyers can negotiate in more markets, but a bigger negotiating advantage doesn’t always mean more affordability.”

Where the 99 metros sit

Of those 99 metros, Realtor.com counts 27 seller’s markets, 49 balanced and loosening, 17 buyer’s markets, and six balanced and tightening. No quadrant holds a majority. Twenty-six metros sit at 1 o’clock, labeled late seller’s market, and 26 sit at 4 o’clock, labeled late balanced market. Realtor.com says about two-thirds of the metros favor buyers outright or are moving that way.

Hartford is the only peak seller’s market, at 12. Greenville, South Carolina, and Nashville are the only peak buyer’s markets, at 6. Over the past year on this series, seller’s markets fell from 39 to 27 and buyer’s markets rose from 13 to 17. Realtor.com says no metro moved into seller’s territory over that stretch.

The same payment buys less house

Realtor.com, company-reported, says mortgage rates rose 74 basis points, from 6.66% in late August to 7.40% on October 8. For a buyer with a $2,000 monthly principal-and-interest budget, the company calculates a 7.2% loss of purchasing power, more than $22,000 of house price.

Realtor.com says buyers in more of today’s markets can negotiate harder on price and terms, and the budget in that example reaches a lower price than it did in late August. A client’s own rate, taxes, insurance, or loan program belongs with the lender.

The hour depends on the region

In Realtor.com’s count, the Midwest accounts for 16 of the 27 seller’s markets, and 16 of its 18 metros are still seller’s markets. The South holds 14 of the 17 buyer’s markets. Over the past year, seller’s markets in the South fell from seven to two. The West had no buyer’s markets in June and three in September: Bakersfield, Colorado Springs, and Riverside. In the Northeast, seller’s markets fell from 11 to 5 over the year, and the region holds five of the six metros labeled balanced and tightening.

Forty-one metros changed hour over the past quarter. Austin, Seattle, Salt Lake City, and Portland, Oregon, each moved two hours toward buyers. Over the past year, 54 of the top 100 metros changed position and 22 changed quadrant. Twelve left seller’s territory, including Boston, Philadelphia, Providence, and Washington, DC. Portland, Maine, made the largest move on that list, from 1 o’clock to 4.

Eleven metros have been seller’s markets in every month of the clock’s history: Columbus, Grand Rapids, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Omaha, St. Louis, and Wichita; Albuquerque, San Francisco, and San Jose; and Harrisburg.

On Realtor.com’s watch list, Atlanta, Augusta, Charleston, Chattanooga, Denver, Jacksonville, Memphis, and San Antonio could tip from balanced into buyer’s markets, and Detroit, Richmond, Columbus, and Indianapolis are closest to leaving seller’s territory.

Three lines before the appointment

Write these before a listing conversation or a counteroffer. Line 1 comes from the October 19 table. Line 2 comes from the report only when it names a move. Line 3 uses the one payment example Realtor.com published. A different monthly budget stays blank until the lender runs it.

1. Hour. Metro, clock hour, and the table’s label.
2. Move. What the report says changed this quarter, or blank.
3. Payment example. The published $2,000 principal-and-interest case, or blank.

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, from the October 19 page

1. Austin, 4, Late Balanced (loosening). Same hour as the national reading.
2. Two hours toward buyers over the past quarter, with Seattle, Salt Lake City, and Portland, Oregon.
3. The published example is the national one above. An Austin payment comes from the lender.

Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, from the same page

1. Indianapolis, 1, Late Seller. One of the 11 metros that have been seller’s markets in every month of the clock’s history.
2. The table still shows 1, Late Seller. Realtor.com groups Indianapolis with Detroit, Richmond, and Columbus as close to leaving seller’s territory.
3. The published example is national. An Indianapolis payment comes from the lender.

Sort the conversation by the hour on line 1.

• 12 or 1. Peak Seller or Late Seller. Put that label on the seller update. Hartford is the only metro at 12. Twenty-six metros are at 1.
• 2 or 3. Early Balanced (loosening) or Balanced (loosening).
• 4, 5, 6, or 7. Late Balanced (loosening), Early Buyer, Peak Buyer, or Late Buyer. Put the label and the national payment example in the same note.
• 8 or 9. Early Balanced (tightening) or Balanced (tightening). Boston, Bridgeport-Stamford-Danbury, and New York are at 9.

What to do this week

• Open the October 19 report and write the hour beside each metro where you have a listing or a buyer you are working with.
• Fill line 2 only when the report names a move.
• Where a buyer’s notes still use a late-August rate, add the company-reported path from 6.66% to 7.40% on October 8, and send that buyer’s own payment to the lender.
• In Greenville, Nashville, Austin, Seattle, Salt Lake City, and Portland, Oregon, use the published hour in this week’s listing conversations.
• In the 11 metros that have been seller’s markets in every month of the clock’s history, keep the seller-side hour on the update.

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